Effects of water scarsity, food production and migration

Abstract

Recent UN Reports show that most countries in northern and eastern Africa and the Middle East are facing water shortage today. The percentage of renewable water resources withdrawn is extremely high. The population growth in most of these countries is estimated to be very high the following decades due to a very young population and a high fertility, even if the fertility is believed to decline. Thus, the population is estimated to grow by 50% in several countries (e.g. Egypt and Ethiopia) within the next 30 to 40 years and in some countries to double or even triple (e.g. Iraq and Mali) during the same period of time.

The hydrological situation will not be improved in northern and eastern Africa and the Middle East. In fact, the global warming is believed to make the situation worse. Since most of the available water is used for food production, the situation might become disastrous. Studies have shown that there is a correlation between poverty and inter and intra-state conflicts. Thus, migration within and from poverty and conflict areas will most likely increase.

In 2015 more than one million refugees came to Europe. This was only a small part of the total number of refugees. The majority remained in the region. Given the hydrological situation and the estimated population growth, people will continue to try to escape from conflicts and poverty. Thus, the migration from northern and eastern Africa and the Middle East to Europe will most likely increase in the future even if the large scale conflict in e.g. Syria will come to an end.

Efforts must be made not only to stop the conflicts in the area, although this is a prerequisite for other measures needed. A more efficient use and reuse of the available water resources must be introduced. Most of the countries in the region lack any type of cooperative water management framework. A more effective large and small scale farming to produce food is also of vital importance. More crops suitable for the climatic conditions must be introduced. Furthermore, family planning is important, even if the fertility is believed to decrease in the future. Efforts are already made in these areas, but much more is needed to give people in northern and eastern Africa and the Middle East reasonable conditions to stay in their own countries.